Iran's grip on Hormuz was never as strong as it looked

Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is eroding, and with it part of the risk premium in oil prices. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in August that oil moving through Hormuz had risen to almost 9 million barrels per day, while another 5-7 million barrels were leaving the Gulf through pipelines and other facilities. The United States therefore concentrated on the infrastructure that made Iranian interdiction possible. CENTCOM reported repeated strikes on coastal radar and surveillance sites, command-and-control networks, missile and drone facilities, and maritime capabilities. The Revolutionary Guards may continue to speak as if Tehran holds the upper hand, but the leverage Iran gained by disrupting Hormuz is clearly diminishing. The more likely course may be to absorb mounting economic pressure while hoping that American domestic politics eventually changes the strategic environment, particularly if Republicans lose control of the House in the November elections. The writer is a lecturer and senior researcher in Islamic and Middle Eastern studies at the Harry S. Truman Institute of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and at Shalem College.