It's hard to call the Brewers a surprise when they keep finishing ahead of the Cubs

The Chicago Cubs haven't conceded the National League Central yet, but their chances of overtaking the Milwaukee Brewers with 22 games remaining are extremely slim. The Brewers had an eight-game lead and Jacob Misiorowski on the mound for Wednesday night's game at Wrigley Field, not to mention the best record in baseball. Despite tagging the Cy Young Award favorite for five earned runs, the Cubs lost 9-5 as the Brewers' bullpen combined for five shutout innings. It's difficult to explain exactly why the Brewers are so much better than the Cubs, especially when you look at their lineup and see only one player — Brice Turang at 5.6 entering Wednesday's matchup — with a bWAR above 3.2. The Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong at a major-league-leading 8.3, along with Seiya Suzuki (4.7) and Alex Bregman (4.5). Home run hitting is the name of the game these days, and the Cubs lead the majors with 197 while the Brewers are last with 130. The Brewers could become the first team since the 1959 White Sox to go to a World Series with the best record and the fewest home runs, according to Baseball Savant. Manager Craig Counsell was brought to Chicago to do what he did in Milwaukee, and though the Cubs appear to be headed to the postseason for the second straight year, this likely will be the third straight division title for his replacement, Pat Murphy. After all the commotion over the Counsell hiring, it's obvious the Brewers didn't lose a step with Murphy. Of course, if the Brewers don't get to the World Series, it will be a major disappointment for Milwaukee, which has a history of strong regular seasons and playoff flops. They usually get a pass because of their payroll, but if this team finishes with 100 wins and gets eliminated by anyone other than the Los Angeles Dodgers, questions will be asked. Asked about the state of the rivalry before the series began Monday, Counsell pointed to the Brewers' record and the fact they were on pace to win 100 games. 'That's hard to keep up with,' he said. 'Go ask the rest of Major League Baseball. They're having a fabulous season. … I'm not surprised by that. We're a good team. We're not a 100-win team. We're not going to be a 100-win team this year. So that's the story right now.' Well, that's certainly part of the story. But how did Brewers general manager Matt Arnold build a 100-win team with a payroll almost $100 million less than the Cubs, and why can't Jed Hoyer do likewise? Pitching obviously is the answer. Despite building the 'next great Cubs team' after the 2021 sell-off, the Cubs have not developed enough starting pitching, forcing Hoyer to sign free agents such as Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Matthew Boyd and recently acquire Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman. The Brewers had the second-ranked pitching staff coming into Wednesday with a 3.47 ERA, while the Cubs ranked 16th with a 4.17 ERA. The Brewers bullpen is much better with a 3.15 ERA to the Cubs' 4.01, which has made a significant difference. That 'pen only gave up one hit in five innings on Wednesday. The Brewers' leverage core — Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, Chad Patrick and DL Hall — has done the job with little notice. Uribe was unscored upon in his last 22 outings entering Wednesday, with a 0.55 ERA in his last 32 appearances. Megill had a 0.31 ERA in his last 29 appearances. Hoyer said the Cubs bullpen has been good this year, with the last week being a blip. 'You wouldn't have asked me that question a week ago,' Hoyer said Tuesday. 'That's the nature of bullpens. Hopefully they can wipe away a bad road trip and a couple bad outings against the Reds. Recency would say they need to step up and perform the way they did the rest of the year, but I don't think you would've asked me that seven games ago.' The Cubs bullpen obviously was hit hard by injuries, and Hoyer has had to bring in new arms all year. He has gotten better-than-expected performances from Jacob Webb, Ryan Rolison and Trent Thornton, but lately Counsell's late-inning choices are a virtual crapshoot. Daniel Palencia is struggling to return to form after missing much of the season, and Ryan Zeferjahn has not lived up to expectations since being acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. 'You try and figure out 'How are we going to be our best team?'' Counsell said Wednesday. 'And it's with these guys pitching. These are the guys we need to pitch well. And the way to do that is get them back out there and pitch again.'