November 4 likely to fall short as a day of destiny

Share current article via Email Share current article via Facebook Share current article via Twitter Share current article via LinkedIn Story audio is generated using AI As the local government elections on November 4 rumble towards us, I can't help wondering whether we are not getting a little carried away with the notion that they will somehow be a 'defining' moment for the country. Of course, politicians will think that, because it is going to be defining for them. But for the country? I'm not convinced. For us, the big story is going to be the general elections in 2029. Who will the ANC replace President Cyril Ramaphosa with? Is his business tycoon brother-in-law Patrice Motsepe really not interested in the top ANC job? And will the DA by then have resolved how best to deploy its new leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis — does he remain mayor of Cape Town, lead the party caucus in parliament or adopt a more statesmanlike presidential posture and speak more regularly to the country rather than merely to the party faithful? For the moment the pieces for a profound outcome on November 4 are not in place. Of course, Helen Zille will do extraordinarily well in Johannesburg, but the best recent polling, by Victory Research, gives the DA just over 40% of the vote in Joburg — and that's on a relatively high turnout supposition of 56%, much higher than the 45% turnout overall for the 2021 local elections. Low turnouts are generally bad for everyone. Probably the only certainties you could draw from the Victory Research polling are that the DA will win a majority again in Cape Town and the ANC will win a majority again in KuGompo City. Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay might be close, but the DA is going to need coalition partners, most probably in all of them. Overall, the ANC is in sharp decline, but the true state of DA support is going to be known on November 5. When you consider the field, happy outcomes are not guaranteed. The parties of the left, centre and right squabble without pause for our benefit, but after votes have been counted, we voters don't matter as coalition talks go private, and what once looked like principles fly out the window. 'One should tell the public very little while negotiations are on the go,' the late DA federal executive chair James Selfe used to say. The big shocks may have more to do with Jacob Zuma's party taking full control of Durban than Helen Zille being locked in one last epic coalition negotiation for Johannesburg Sadly, the parties have also been very poor at improving the outcomes of our elections. A bill designed to improve the quality of governance in municipalities has only this month landed in parliament. The Municipal Structures Amendment Bill, the so-called coalitions bill, tries to make coalitions after local elections more stable by limiting the frequency of votes of no confidence. Coalition agreements would have to be agreed and signed; parties would have 30 days, not the current 14, to complete talks. But none of this is in time for November 4, and even if it were, the elephant in the room is not addressed: should a small party with just enough votes to get one seat be able to tip the political balance one way or another? Surely, as in Germany and many other countries, there should be a threshold to get over? The Germans require you to get 5% of the vote before you get into parliament. Here, even with just a 3% threshold, only the ANC, DA, MKP, EFF and the IFP would have made it into parliament after the 2024 elections. In a country still trying to embed its democracy in the face of growing voter apathy exclusion on that scale would be intolerable. But, equally, small parties create havoc. There are no easy answers, and legislation to at least propose the creation of a threshold of sorts and a degree of constituency voting — a new Electoral Act — is not even in the offing. And even if it were available tomorrow, it's unlikely the political and infrastructural work to make it happen would be ready for 2029. So the big shocks this November 4 may have more to do with Jacob Zuma's MK Party taking full control of Durban (eThekwini) outright than Helen Zille being locked in one last epic coalition negotiation for Johannesburg. Obviously the sensible voter would hope Zuma fails and that Zille succeeds. It could in fact be Zuma who ends up inadvertently fuelling the most logical outcome for 10 to 15 years of absolute political stability in South Africa. That would be the ANC and the DA, the political elite, sharing power wherever it gives them a clean 50% plus one — locally, in provinces, and nationally. I can't see this country making much progress absent these two parties finding a way forward together, however impossible it may seem, perhaps especially for Zille in Gauteng. It's a nettle Ramaphosa and Hill-Lewis will need to grasp.