Not a zero-sum game: How to prevent an Israeli-Turkish clash in Syria

A dialogue between a serving Mossad director and a Syrian foreign minister is no ordinary occurrence. Several days after speaking by telephone, the two met in an effort to defuse tensions following an Israeli strike on an airbase in northwestern Syria. According to Israel, Turkey intended to deploy radar systems and unmanned aerial vehicles at the base, followed by air-defense systems and military personnel. Damascus and Ankara denied that there were plans to establish a permanent Turkish presence there. In doing so, Turkey seeks to translate its long-standing involvement in Syria into broader regional influence. From Israel's perspective, the deployment of Turkish-made radar and advanced air-defense systems could restrict the Israel Air Force's freedom of action in Syria and Lebanon and hamper operations intended to prevent Iran from reestablishing its presence or transferring weapons to Hezbollah. Turkey's influence in Damascus is considerable, but it is not unlimited. President Ahmed al-Sharaa has been careful to cultivate relations with the United States, the Gulf states, and other regional and international actors, partly to avoid excessive dependence on Ankara. Syria certainly needs Turkish assistance, but this does not mean that it wishes to become a Turkish client state. Moreover, given the new alliances taking shape in the region – such as the 'Mecca Pact' among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey - an Israeli initiative in Syria, whether through the establishment of a coordination framework or the signing of a non-aggression agreement, could demonstrate flexibility and creativity in adapting to the regional alignments emerging in the post–October 7 era. Prof. Elie Podeh teaches in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a member of the Executive Board of Mitvim. Eitan Yishai is a doctoral candidate at the Hebrew University specializing in Lebanon and serves as Director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Mitvim.