Palestinian demands hold key to Israeli poll

They may be most unloved kingmakers in global politics. Palestinian citizens of Israel represent roughly a fifth of the Israeli population, but around 50 days from a crucial Israel election, it is their votes that could determine which bloc wins. The trouble is that these Palestinians inside Israel are subject to arguably the worst levels of racism, hatred, and discrimination in Israel's history. Already Israeli Jewish political figures — not just the firebreathers of the far right — are tripping over themselves in a sprint to insist they will never back a government that has to rely on Arab members of the Knesset. According to a poll last November, 71.5 percent of the Israeli Jews oppose Arab parties being in government. The Joint List and the United Arab List are the two primary options for Palestinian voters. The latest polls indicate the Joint List will get nine seats and UAL five. The record for Palestinian parties was 15 seats in the 2020 election, so 14 seats would represent a success. Much will depend on turnout. This is much lower in Palestinian areas than against the national average, which hovers around the 70 percent mark. The low point for Arab voting was in the 2021 election at 44 percent, yet it has reached as high as 64.8 percent in March 2020. Not all Palestinian voters vote for Arab parties, but they typically expect to get over 80 percent of that vote. The low turnout is largely because of the lack of faith in the system, and a feeling that they do not truly belong. Palestinian political figures in Israel tell me they are confident that this time there will be a high turnout. The desire to get rid of Netanyahu is high. Fighting crime and stopping the demolitions are powerful calls, and they want action. Sami Abu Shehadeh, the leader of Balad, part of the Joint List, tells me: 'The people are terrified. They want to see a change. They do not want to see this coalition come back again.' Fear is the motivation. Much will depend on the turnout Chris Doyle Constant stories about the Palestinians being a Trojan horse hardly help. A recent report found that the Israeli Ministry of Education has been conducting surveillance on teachers to determine if they are guilty of incitement. Three out of every four under surveillance were Arab. Aside from fear, a desire for accountability matters, that the leaders who committed a genocide have to pay a price. Abu Shehadeh is clear: 'We can prevent the criminals coming back to rule again. The racist policies of the current government toward the Palestinians in Israel have been terrifying.' Palestinian core demands include addressing policing. Palestinian communities have suffered a huge surge in crime, they argue as a result of the Israeli police deliberately ignoring their towns and villages, and thereby giving free rein to criminal elements. The most extreme minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, has been responsible for policing, and his ouster would be warmly welcomed. The statistics are startling. In 2025, there were a record 252 killings in Palestinian communities, making up 80 percent all violent killings in Israel. Israeli police have solved only 15 percent of homicides in Palestinian communities inside Israel, against 65 percent in Jewish communities. A second core demand is the end of the demolition derby, above all in the Naqab. Last year, Israel carried out more than 5,700 demolitions and enforcement orders in the Naqab, according to Ben Gvir. The problem is that Palestinian Bedouin often cannot get permits or live in one of the 35 unrecognized villages that do not appear on any town planning schemes. Once again Ben Gvir is the architect of the project. Palestinians I spoke to feel that these demolitions are part of a similar strategy as adopted in the occupied West Bank. Fear is the motivation Chris Doyle For all these reasons, many Palestinians fear what will transpire between now and polling day. This includes campaigns of voter suppression, preventing voters from getting to the polling stations. Many Israeli politicians will attempt to stop Palestinians candidates from running. Others think Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will try to find an excuse to cancel the elections or not accept the result as legitimate. A strong case has to be made for international observers and monitors to properly assess how the vote is conducted and to ensure that it is credible and fair. The lame argument that Israel is a democracy while systematically discriminating against its Palestinian minority has to be put to rest. Palestinians want to commit regicide, to dethrone the king of Israeli politics, Netanyahu, but also determine the path of his replacement. Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, looks like he is the most likely man, but he is just the lesser of two evils in the eyes of Palestinians. Eisenkot and his allies do not disavow many of the Netanyahu policies toward Palestinians. They face two options, one arguably slightly less violent and racist than the other. Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech