Opinion – Getting to Four–analysis of the upcoming Burlington civic election

Editor's note: This article appears courtesy of Focus Burlington The 2026 municipal election is in full swing. A number of contests, including the mayoral race, feature multiple candidates, and with a month and a half remaining before election day, the outcome of many races is far from certain. Yet, reading between the lines of both the Strategic Liaisons poll and the survey conducted by Focus Burlington, two themes clearly emerge: Residents want change. Property tax increases are a major concern for many voters. But change does not happen by accident. Understanding what precipitates a change in policy direction—and what conditions are necessary to create that shift—is important. The Catalysts for Change Most people, I would suggest, are comfortable with the status quo. Maintaining the existing order provides continuity, familiarity and reassurance. But sometimes conditions deteriorate to the point where change becomes necessary. Politically, there are several factors that can drive significant policy change: An external threat — The imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods by the Trump administration is perhaps the most compelling current example of a threat originating outside our borders. An economic threat — When a major employer closes, a community's tax base can be severely eroded. Such events often force a major realignment of budgets and priorities. Major political upheaval — A good example is the restructuring of Metro Toronto Council in 2022, mandated by the Ford provincial government. Reputational damage — This occurs when one or more public figures are accused or found guilty of corruption or malfeasance. Perhaps the most glaring Canadian example occurred in Saskatchewan during Grant Devine's tenure as Premier. Widespread corruption charges led to several senior political figures being charged and forced to resign. The resulting changes ultimately contributed to the collapse of the Progressive Conservative government and party in that province. Funding cutbacks — When transfer payments from other levels of government are significantly reduced, municipalities may be forced to cut, consolidate or eliminate services. A good example occurred under Ontario Premier Mike Harris and the policies associated with his government's 'Common Sense Revolution.' Contradiction — When the policy direction of an elected body no longer aligns with the needs and interests of voters, change often follows. This is particularly common when governments have been in power for a long time or when elected officials become disconnected from the concerns of those they represent. It is this last factor—contradiction—that is a major driver of local discontent in Burlington in 2026. How Intense Is the Desire for Change in 2026? One of the questions in the Focus Burlington survey asked: Overall, is Burlington moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? More than 60% of respondents felt that civic leaders were not responding to voters' needs in a way that gave them confidence. While the Liaison Strategies survey results were not quite as pronounced, they nevertheless indicate that a majority of voters are unhappy with the direction in which the city is headed: Getting to Four and Beyond Unlike 2022, this year's municipal election will be considerably different. Two sitting councillors are challenging the incumbent for the mayor's seat, while one existing councillor, Shawna Stolte, has decided not to run. At a minimum, we will have three new councillors representing Wards 2, 3 and 4. If we assume that the candidates in these three wards are running because of dissatisfaction with Council's current direction, will that level of turnover be enough to produce change? Probably not. Simple math tells us that even if all three newly elected councillors vote together on major issues, they would still be in the minority on a council consisting of six councillors and a mayor. And that does not account for the influence the Mayor can exercise through Strong Mayor Powers. Could a change in mayor produce change? Perhaps. But that depends on whether the policy direction of the mayoral challengers is meaningfully different from that of the incumbent. If a new mayor chooses not to exercise Strong Mayor Powers, instead deferring to the democratic will of Council, and votes consistently with the newly elected councillors, the policy dynamic could begin to shift. Could changes in the other wards produce policy change? More likely. If one or more of the incumbents in Wards 1, 5 and 6 are replaced, the balance of Council could shift significantly. Three new councillors, a new mayor and at least one additional new councillor could, therefore, produce a meaningful change in policy direction. One Important Caveat Of course, all of this is speculation. It rests on one critical assumption: that those elected will take the city in a substantially different policy direction from the one we have experienced over the past four years. At a minimum, that would mean lower tax increases, a stronger focus on transportation and reducing gridlock, and a different approach to urban development—one that provides greater control over development while addressing the need for housing for the 'missing middle.' Too often, Burlington's Council resembles a dog on a leash. Those of us who routinely watch Council proceedings are left wondering who is really in charge. The municipal public service exerts a significant influence over the policy agenda, so much so that those of us who routinely watch Council proceedings are left wondering who is really in charge. Consider the budget discussions over the past several years, which produced increases well above both past practice and inflation. Other Ontario mayors, such as Drew Dilkens in Windsor, have tasked their finance departments with producing budgets with a 0% increase. No comparable constraint has been evident in Burlington. Challenges from councillors to the prevailing status quo have also been few and far between. That stands in stark contrast to Hamilton, where there is a clear and vocal opposition to much of the agenda advanced by Mayor Andrea Horwath. In Toronto, councillors such as Brad Bradford and Josh Matlow routinely challenge the direction and agenda of Mayor Olivia Chow. In Burlington, there has been little comparable opposition. Shifting the Narrative: The Accountability Framework Too often, elected councillors—whether incumbents or newly elected—fall into line with the prevailing direction once they take office. Organizational norms, established municipal practices, the knowledge and experience concentrated within the public service, and the sheer complexity of local government can exert enormous influence over newly elected officials. It is perhaps not surprising that candidates can say one thing while canvassing during an election and act very differently once they are in office. Focus Burlington wants to change that. Earlier this year, our members developed an Accountability Framework identifying the core values, principles and goals we believe are important for Burlington to follow. Quite frankly, we are tired of a nameless, faceless and often unaccountable municipal public service promoting strategies such as the 15-minute city to the electorate. We believe it is time for elected officials to assert greater control over the direction of the city—and to do so in a tangible and deliberate way. Our Accountability Framework is posted on our website, and we invite readers to review it. More importantly, we have written to every candidate running in this election and asked them to sign onto the Framework as a demonstration of their commitment to these principles if elected. After Thanksgiving, we will post on our website the names of all candidates who have openly endorsed the document. We encourage everyone to consider this as they prepare to vote on October 26. Getting to four may be necessary to change the policy dynamic at City Hall. But it may not be sufficient. Regardless of who is elected, Focus Burlington will do its best to hold them accountable. The Accountability Framework provides a clear basis for doing so. Hopefully, that offers voters something more tangible—and more reassuring—than simply relying on 'getting to four.'