Why electoral decline has not broken ANC apart

Share current article via Email Share current article via Facebook Share current article via Twitter Share current article via LinkedIn For much of South Africa's democratic era, the ANC's large electoral majorities made it easy to overlook the extent of its internal divisions. Arguments about power, policy and the direction of the country were a constant feature of its internal politics, but repeated victories at the polls allowed a divided organisation to present itself as a coherent political force. The struggle against apartheid gave the ANC a common purpose capable of containing disagreements over ideology, strategy and ambition, while providing a powerful source of legitimacy. Three decades after the start of democratic rule, that history remains central to the ANC's identity but can no longer provide the same political glue. Preserving the organisation's place at the centre of political power has increasingly become an organising purpose of its own, while other sources of cohesion have grown in importance. The most powerful of these incentives remains access to the state. Incumbency does more than give the ANC an advantage over its electoral competitors. It also shapes the calculations of those competing within the organisation, because control of government brings political office, influence over appointments and procurement, and opportunities for career advancement. Remaining inside the ANC therefore preserves routes to political power that departure can place at risk. These incentives become especially visible during elections, when struggles over candidate lists determine not only who represents the party but also whose political careers advance and whose are interrupted. Patronage gives this access an internal structure by organising loyalty and sustaining alliances when ideological agreement weakens. Positions, appointments and other opportunities acquire political value because those able to influence their distribution can reward allies and strengthen their own networks. Internal conflict can therefore intensify even when disagreements over the direction of the country have not deepened. Historical legitimacy provides another source of cohesion. The liberation struggle may no longer supply the common purpose it once did, but the identity and authority it created still carry political weight. For those whose political lives were formed within the movement, belonging carries historical and personal meaning that is difficult to reproduce elsewhere. That legacy no longer guarantees electoral loyalty, but it continues to bind parts of the organisation together even as agreement about its future has weakened. Even factionalism, usually presented as evidence that the ANC is coming apart, provides a more paradoxical source of cohesion. Factions give competing groups a way to organise and pursue power without leaving the party, but they also function as a training ground for political competition. They teach ambitious politicians how to build networks, mobilise support, negotiate alliances and survive defeat while waiting for another internal contest. Losing, therefore, does not necessarily mean exclusion. Today's defeated faction can regroup around the next conference, candidate list or leadership contest. Factionalism can consequently weaken the ANC's organisational coherence while continually reproducing the skills, networks and expectations that keep political competition inside the movement. Even factionalism, usually presented as evidence that the ANC is coming apart, provides a more paradoxical source of cohesion. Factions give competing groups a way to organise and pursue power without leaving the party, but they also function as a training ground for political competition Electoral anxiety adds another force. Declining support has created a vulnerability that competing factions increasingly share. Whatever divides them internally, all have something to lose when the ANC loses political power. The prospect of displacement can therefore create its own pressure for unity, particularly around elections when factional conflict carries a collective electoral cost. As outright majorities become harder to secure, competing groups share an interest in keeping the ANC sufficiently powerful for their internal victories to remain politically valuable. Coalition politics provides another, newer source of cohesion. Losing an outright majority no longer necessarily removes the ANC from government. In municipalities where it cannot govern alone, coalition agreements can preserve political office, influence and a share of governing authority. This has softened some of the organisational consequences of electoral decline by creating a space between outright victory and outright exclusion. The ANC can therefore lose electoral dominance without immediately losing all the political benefits that came with it. Last, renewal provides a different sort of cohesion. It allows the ANC to acknowledge failure without requiring its members to conclude that the organisation itself has exhausted its political purpose. Corruption, weak administration and declining public trust can instead be understood as problems that remain capable of correction from within. This distinction matters because it keeps reformers and critics invested in the organisation rather than forcing them to choose between defending its failures and abandoning it. The language of renewal can therefore sustain belief in the possibility of a different ANC even when the discipline required to produce one remains uneven. The ANC has so far lost voters faster than it has lost the forces holding the organisation together. That difference helps explain why electoral decline has produced a weaker party without yet producing its disintegration. The local government election will test how much further those forces can stretch as the political ecosystem created by decades of dominance continues to narrow. For now, the ANC's electoral decline and its organisational cohesion are moving at different speeds. • Prof Sekhampu is the chief director of the NWU Business School.