OPINION: Main takeaways from Witkoff's and Kushner's Appearance in Kyiv

The latest Moscow - Kyiv peace effort from Kushner and Witkoff ended with an incredibly revealing press conference which laid bare the problem with the Trump peace effort in Ukraine. Most telling were Kushner's comments suggesting that he saw the peace process as some kind of business deal and that, as in a business deal, what is 'simply' needed is to find a 'win-win.' If anything demonstrated that Kushner has zero understanding of this war - or as Putin says the fundamental causes of this war - it was this comment. JOIN US ON TELEGRAM Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. For Kushner et al it's just about territory. That Putin just wants to keep Crimea and to be given the rest of Donbas, and then if Ukraine can be assured as to its long-term security, then that's the win-win and that both states can go forth and prosper, and that the Trump administration can then take a big commission for cutting the deal with minerals deals et al with Russia and Ukraine. Advertisement But for Putin it's not just about territory, it's about the subjugation of the whole of Ukraine. But for Putin it's not just about territory, it's about the subjugation of the whole of Ukraine. He even said as much in the long-winded essay Putin wrote in mid-2021 laying out his justification for war. In that Putin denies the very right of a truly independent and sovereign Ukraine to exist. That's the fundamental cause of this war - that for Putin if Ukraine is to exist as a state, then it has to be within Russia's sphere of influence and to bow to Russia. Other Topics of Interest Ukraine Counts on US Passing New Russia Sanctions, Zelensky Says President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine counts on the US passing a major new sanctions package, though it was not raised in talks with US envoys. He annexed Crimea in 2014, first invaded Donbas back in the same year and then launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because with the Euromaidan it was clear Ukrainians wanted a different path, and wanted to look West, to Europe. That they wanted to truly break free from the Kremlin's shackles. There is no win–win peace solution here when it's actually a zero-sum game as Putin wants the destruction of an independent Ukraine, and actually the erasure of Ukrainian identity which is an afront to him personally. Ukrainians are fighting for their very identity. Advertisement Obviously, Kushner et al just cannot grasp this simple and obvious concept or don't want to understand that. But not all business deals end up as win wins. Think here back to the US's own history of the robber barons, or of vulture funds, black knights, there are plenty of them. The weak are typically exploited to the full by the more powerful as the nature of the game. And I guess Trump himself has plenty of history in business of zero or near zero-sum outcomes. I doubt many of the business deals Trump has conducted in his career were nice win-win outcomes. It's a myth. Look at the Gaza deal, is that really a win-win as it stands today? And remarkable that after eight 'pilgrimages' to Moscow by Witkoff he still has no clue how to read Putin – he is too busy with platitudes. In this war Ukraine was the weaker party, but because it had no choice as Ukrainians were fighting for their very survival and have used that survival instinct plus immense bravery and innovation to transform a very weak position into one where they now have leverage and 'cards.' But there is still no win-win when the other side – Putin – still wants to end your very survival. But as said, Kushner, Witkoff and Trump just do not get the above. And remarkable that after eight 'pilgrimages' to Moscow by Witkoff he still has no clue how to read Putin – he is too busy with platitudes. Advertisement One other notable take out here is that ultimately this is all about power, and perhaps Trump, Witkoff et al don't understand the power they have in their hands – actually the power to bring about a peace. In this respect it is clear from Putin and Zelensky in their messaging around this peace process that they both understand the power of the US. Both are going overboard to keep the messaging about Trump and his peace effort positive, despite I think fundamental concerns about the character of Trump. Putin understands that if he misplays Trump the U.S. president could perhaps go all in in support for Ukraine - maximizing weapons supplies to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. In that scenario the momentum in this war could turn quickly against Moscow and it could face a catastrophic defeat in Ukraine which would have ramifications for the survival both of the Putin regime but the Russian Federation itself. And similarly Zelensky knows that the US could pull even the moderate munitions supplies it currently provides to Ukraine, paid for by the Europeans, and that could be similarly catastrophic for Ukraine in this war. Further, the US could threaten Europe with sanctions or tariffs unless they pull support from Ukraine to get Kyiv to back literally any peace deal Trump proposes. Advertisement Note the bad deal for Ukraine (loss of territory which would likely then cause a political and social explosion inside the country then setting off centrifugal forces) would be existential for its survival – it would likely fight on, and Europe might decide to continue to back Ukraine because stopping Putin is now existential for Europe. So Zelensky is playing along with Trump, respecting US power, not that he is willing to accept any peace deal imposed by Trump, but he knows that if the US support is pulled the war just gets much worse for Ukraine, with many more Ukrainians dying. But Trump does not realize that Putin respects power. He understands the might of the U.S. and does not want to get into a conventional war with NATO – that's partly why he has not used nuclear weapons in Ukraine. If faced with the prospect of accepting a deal short of his ambitions, or risking the US maxing out support for Ukraine, and then a catastrophic defeat for Russia I think Putin would choose survival. Accepting a deal short of Putin's maximalist demands would not be as catastrophic for Russia as a bad deal would be for Ukraine – Putin can sell almost any deal at home as a win as he controls the PR narrative. Zelensky cannot as Ukraine is a democracy, and he lacks the tools of control over society, unlike Putin. Advertisement But Putin is not being forced to accept that choice by a weak POTUS who does not really understand the power he has in these negotiations. Trump has power over Putin – to accept a peace deal short of his maximalist demands – but Trump does not understand the power the US has over Putin and Russia or is too scared to use that power. Accepting a deal short of Putin's maximalist demands would not be as catastrophic for Russia as a bad deal would be for Ukraine For whatever reason Trump always fails to wield any power – sanctions et al - against Moscow. But if Trump wants peace in Ukraine, and his Nobel peace prize, he has to wield that power against Russia. The only deal that could stick here is freeze the frontlines as is and then give Ukraine a cast iron guarantee to supply the full range of conventional weapons to defend itself, plus EU membership to assure the prosperity it needs to fund its own defense and ensure long term social and political stability. We have gone beyond NATO membership as NATO itself is now dysfunctional and its very future is in doubt given differences in interests and values across the transatlantic divide. The alternative now to Trump using his power to impose the above peace is never ending war. Reprinted from the author's tashecon blog. See the original here. Advertisement